High Variance Is Part Of Green Bay's Identity

One week after a statement victory in Pittsburgh, the Green Bay Packers responded with a lackadaisical performance, losing at home to the Carolina Panthers, a two-touchdown underdog.

Such is life in the NFL, one supposes.

The 2025 Packers are a hard team to categorize. Against the Detroit Lions, Washington Commanders, and Pittsburgh Steelers — expected to be tough opponents — the Packers looked like presumptive Super Bowl favorites.

Other weeks, the team can’t get out of its own way and struggles to land the killing blow against inferior opponents. Their 5-2-1 record doesn’t look terrible, especially with the Packers still in first place in the NFC North, but those losses came against the Cleveland Browns and Carolina. Not exactly the cream of the NFL’s crop.

“Packers beat themselves” would be more assuring and comforting if it wasn’t so common that it could be considered part of the team’s identity

— Zach Kruse (@zachkruse2) November 3, 2025

There are a plethora of fun reasons one can blame for Sunday’s stinker of a game. Green Bay’s history of poor play on Daylight Savings Time weekend, throwback uniforms bringing bad luck to their wearers, both of Green Bay’s losses coming from noon games, everyone partied too hard for Jordan Love‘s birthday, etc.

But through eight games, this high-variance play is, unfortunately, Green Bay’s identity. Halfway through the season, it’s foolish to think Green Bay might suddenly figure out all of its issues and play four quarters of dominant football week after week. This team is as mercurial as the Gales of November, and we must weather the storm.

The vibes of the last two weeks couldn’t be more different, highlighting both extremes of this year’s Packers team.

Against Pittsburgh, Jordan Love outdueled his mentor and played at an MVP-level, leading Green Bay to its first victory in the Steel City since Bart Starr was quarterback.

Sunday’s game was the opposite. Common mistakes like pre-snap penalties, special teams errors, and odd playcalling, sprinkled with turnovers and injuries, led to Green Bay falling at home in its worst loss at Lambeau since 2018 — the Josh Rosen-led upset that led to Mike McCarthy’s dismissal.

In a game in which the Packers didn’t punt once, the offense scored only 13 points. Bryce Young threw for just 102 yards (and an interception), but Carolina’s rushing attack did enough for an upset.

Green Bay’s pass rush couldn’t disrupt Young enough despite his battered offensive line, while the Packers’ line struggled in pass protection. Another missed field goal made a world of difference in a game Green Bay lost by three points. To top it off, the Packers lost one of their most important players, Tucker Kraft, for the rest of the season. Definitely Green Bay’s worst game of the season.

Give Carolina their flowers. They came into a hostile road environment with a clear plan for victory and moved to a 5-4 record on the season. The other team also plays to win, but this is a game the Packers should have walked away with.

It’s, oddly, the opposite of the 2024 Packers, who were good enough to beat most bad-to-middling teams but couldn’t get traction against their division rivals or the NFC’s top teams. The 2025 group’s peaks are much higher than the 2024 version’s, which will matter more down the stretch. Still, it’s difficult not to get frustrated after outplaying the legendary Aaron Rodgers only to lose to Bryce Young’s team.

As always, Matt LaFleur took full accountability for the loss. Still, it’s fair to put a good portion of this one on the head coach, even if I refuse to humor the “fire MLF” sentiment popular on the interwebs.

Coaching is a major component of the variance. I must restate that LaFleur is one of the top coaches in the NFL. However, time management and decision-making aren’t always his best skills. When the team underperforms against opponents they should beat, at least in the eyes of Vegas, it’s worth pondering what the prep for that week looks like. Do the Packers think they can sleepwalk through a victory and save their best work for the top-rated opponents? Is it an overcorrection of last year’s issues?

Whatever the internal issues causing the variance in play, it’s now part of the team’s identity. This team isn’t always fun to watch, but the Packers are still well-positioned for a postseason run.

The Philadelphia Eagles head to Lambeau and are -2.5 point underdogs. Monday night is a “circle on the calendar” game against the defending Super Bowl champions, who ended Green Bay’s season last year. Will we get the creative, hungry Packers team that handily beat Detroit, Washington, and Pittsburgh, or the mistake-prone one that lost to Carolina?

We can’t predict which version of the Green Bay Packers might show up on game day. The hope is that the sexiest version of the Packers show up in the biggest games, and that the uglier version can still find ways to win, as they have more often than not.