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Bills vs Chiefs – Highmark Erupts: Buffalo Wins with Tempo and Discipline

Preview

Kickoff: Sunday, November 2, 2025 — 4:25 PM ET
Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Broadcast: CBS
Both teams are nicked up: the Chiefs are without Isiah Pacheco (knee) and OL Josh Simmons (personal)Trey Smith (back) is questionable but practiced fully Friday; key pieces like Nick Bolton, Omenihu, and Jawaan Taylor are set. The Bills are missing DaQuan Jones (calf)Shaq Thompson (hamstring) and Josh Palmer (knee/ankle)Taron Johnson (groin) is questionable, while Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano are slated to go.​

Tactically, Pacheco’s absence nudges KC toward more dropbacks and Mahomes‑centric early downs—Buffalo can answer with shape‑shifting two‑high, disciplined contain, and forcing long, patient drives to suppress explosive variance. Without Jones inside, Buffalo must rotate smartly and tackle clean on the perimeter to snuff WR screens and swings—Andy Reid’s go‑to answers when the RB1 is sidelined.​

On offense, the Bills should toggle tempo (no‑huddle bursts, deeper huddles) to box Spagnuolo into personnel, use motion/shift to reveal coverage, then blend quick game, play‑action and Allen keepers. KC’s defense is well‑coached, but Buffalo can stress it by staying on schedule with James Cook and attacking seam/glance with Kincaid/Shakir.​

Projected cores:

  • Bills offense: Allen; Cook; WR Diggs, Shakir; TE Kincaid; starting OL. Defense: Oliver leads the interior; edge rotation; Milano–Bernard at LB; nickel depends on Taron Johnson’s status.​

  • Chiefs offense: Mahomes; RB committee (Hunt/CEH/Mitchell/Brashard Smith if active); WR Hollywood Brown; TE Kelce; OL with Taylor and possibly Smith. Defense: Jones up front with Omenihu in rotation.​

  • Markets call it tight (KC -1.5; O/U 52.5), but several models lean Bills to cover and win if they control pace and the explosives tally. Deciders: turnover margin, red‑zone TD rate, and two‑minute execution.​

    Score prediction: Bills 27, Chiefs 23—Buffalo closes with a 9‑play drive capped by a Kincaid seam in the red zone, then a Milano/Bernard 3rd‑and‑long stop out of a deep shell. Highmark roars to the final whistle.​

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    First time in 8 NFL years, Mahomes under 50% completion. Allen 88%. Cook 114 yards. Highmark erupts. But the big question: Can we do it in January? 🦬
      ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — November 2, 2025 The Buffalo Bills just did what no team had done in Patrick Mahomes' eight-year NFL career: forced him under 50% completions. At 44.1% (15/34, 250 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT), this marks Mahomes' worst career completion rate—lower than his previous 50% floor vs Cleveland last year. Defense Makes History Sean McDermott and the defense crafted the perfect blueprint: pressure on 52.6% of Mahomes' dropbacks, limiting him to 3-of-16 under duress with one pick by Max Hairston (rookie first-rounder) in Q4—his first career INT against a Hall of Fame QB. Joey Bosa dominated with 5 QB hits, 1 sack, 2 TFL. Greg Rousseau added 4 QB hits, 0.5 sack. Michael Hoecht (before Achilles injury) 1 QB hit, 0.5 sack. Deone Walker and AJ Epenesa combined for 3 QB hits. The front won one-on-ones without blitzing—forcing Mahomes into hurried decisions. Cole Bishop (second-year safety) delivered a breakout: 4 pass breakups, 7 tackles, 1 TFL—his best career performance, proving he's "turned the corner." Allen's 88% Perfection While Mahomes struggled, Josh Allen soared: 88% completion (23/26), 273 yards, 1 TD pass, 2 TD rush—a career-high accuracy mark. Every scoring drive, Allen was nearly flawless. Dalton Kincaid exploded against the Chiefs (top-5 TE defense): 6 receptions, 101 yards, 1 TD—100% catch rate on targets. Dawson Knox 30 yards, Jackson Hawes 18 yards—the TE room dominated. James Cook made history: 114 yards on 27 carries—the first RB to rush 100+ yards vs KC since Lamar Jackson, Week 1, 2024. KC doesn't allow 100-yard rushers; Cook shattered that. Buffalo's OL created lanes and kept Allen clean—strong post-bye bounce back. Concerns Michael Hoecht injury: Non-contact Achilles in Q3—likely season-ending. Hoecht refused to leave, staying with teammates through the final whistle. Major loss for the DL rotation. WR play: Quiet. Khalil Shakir 7/43 (mostly quick throws), Keon Coleman 2/17, Elijah Moore 1/28. Buffalo needs more from this spot for a deep playoff run. Cook's ankle: Taped after two drives but played through—needs monitoring. The Paradox Remains Buffalo is now 5-1 vs Mahomes in regular season but 0-4 in playoffs. Today's win is historic—but only matters if replicated in January. The big question: Can "October Josh" become "January Josh"? Buffalo proved they have the formula: organized pressure, disciplined coverage, controlled tempo. If they replicate it in the playoffs, Bills Mafia will see their first Super Bowl since the '90s. Today is step one. January is the destination. 🦬